Abilene Christian
1-2
Missouri State
3-0
Win Probability
Abilene Christian travels to face Missouri State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Wildcats' record sits at 1–2, and they will need to contain Missouri State's scoring punch; across 50,000 simulations, the Bears project to 75.7 points. On games where the model has leaned this strongly toward the favorite, it has won 81% of the time historically. Abilene Christian can still pull the upset if its defense forces enough possessions into low-efficiency looks, but Missouri State enters as the clear choice.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MOST | EV | ACU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -332 | -3.4% | -129 | -24.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 145.5 | -115 | -6.5% | -105 | +2.2% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Missouri State 72% to beat Abilene Christian (28%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Missouri State the more likely winner at 72%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Missouri State a 72% chance of beating Abilene Christian, against 28% for Abilene Christian. Missouri State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Abilene Christian (1-2 so far) project to finish 12.3–15.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Missouri State project to finish 10.1–16.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abilene Christian | 12.3–15.7 | 7% | 7% |
| Missouri State | 10.1–16.9 | 3% | 3% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Abilene Christian and Missouri State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Abilene Christian have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).