NCAAB
Central Arkansas
2-2
Oklahoma State
2-1
Win Probability
Moneyline
CARK
+227
7.2% win prob
EV -38.2%
Polymarket
Moneyline
OKST
-55290
92.8% win prob
EV -3.5%
Polymarket
Central Arkansas travels to Norman for a matchup where Oklahoma State's simulation-favored outcome is emphatic. The Bears enter at 2-2 while the Cowboys host at 2-1, with the model projecting a decisive home victory. Oklahoma State's scoring depth will likely prove decisive; the Cowboys' ability to sustain offensive pressure across possessions is where Central Arkansas' traveling defense faces its stiffest test. AccuScore's model won 97% of 658 games shaped this way. For the Bears to pull the upset, they would need to force turnovers early and contain Oklahoma State's offensive rhythm from the opening minutes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | OKST | EV | CARK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -55290 | -3.5% | +227 | -38.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 160.5 | -110 | +0.3% | -110 | -4.8% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma State 93% to beat Central Arkansas (7%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma State the more likely winner at 93%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Oklahoma State a 93% chance of beating Central Arkansas, against 7% for Central Arkansas. Oklahoma State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Central Arkansas (1-2 so far) project to finish 17.5–10.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 34% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Oklahoma State (2-1 so far) project to finish 16.5–15.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 36% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Arkansas | 17.5–10.5 | 43% | 34% |
| Oklahoma State | 16.5–15.5 | 1% | 36% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Central Arkansas and Oklahoma State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Central Arkansas have won 1 of their last 3 (L-L-W, most recent first).
Oklahoma State have won 2 of their last 3 (L-W-W, most recent first).