Western Illinois
1-3
Minnesota
4-0
Win Probability
Moneyline
WIU
0.0% win prob
Moneyline
MINN
100.0% win prob
Minnesota hosts a Western Illinois team that has won just once in four games, and the simulation strongly favours the Gophers. AccuScore's model gives Western Illinois virtually no path to victory here, with Minnesota projected to dominate on both ends. In similar matchups where the model has leaned this decisively, the favoured side won 97 percent of 658 graded games. For Western Illinois to pull off the upset, it would need a historic shooting night—the projection suggests the Leathernecks will struggle to reach 55 points—while Minnesota's offence fails to execute. The game turns on whether Minnesota can impose its control early; even a modest defensive effort should be enough to close this one out.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 138.5 | -115 | -5.6% | -105 | +1.2% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Minnesota 100% to beat Western Illinois (0%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Minnesota the more likely winner at 100%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Minnesota a 100% chance of beating Western Illinois, against 0% for Western Illinois. Minnesota are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Western Illinois (0-3 so far) project to finish 5.2–21.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Minnesota (4-0 so far) project to finish 18.8–13.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 46% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Illinois | 5.2–21.8 | 1% | 1% |
| Minnesota | 18.8–13.2 | 1% | 46% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Western Illinois and Minnesota come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Western Illinois have won 0 of their last 3 (L-L-L, most recent first).
Minnesota have won 4 of their last 4 (W-W-W-W, most recent first).