Long Beach State
1-2
#9UCLA
3-0
Win Probability
Moneyline
LBSU
+279
0.5% win prob
EV -49.1%
Polymarket
Moneyline
UCLA
-55290
99.5% win prob
EV -0.2%
Polymarket
Long Beach State visits UCLA in a matchup where the simulation emphatically favours the home side. The 49ers arrive winless in three games against a Bruins team that has not dropped a contest, and AccuScore projects a 32-point margin that hinges on Long Beach State's offensive struggles—the visitor's projected score of 58 points sits well below what typically keeps a game competitive. In 658 games where AccuScore leaned this strongly toward one side, that side won 97% of the time. For Long Beach State to pull off the upset, its offence would need to exceed its projection by a decisive margin, something the model sees as highly unlikely given the talent gap the simulation has identified.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UCLA | EV | LBSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -55290 | -0.2% | +279 | -49.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes UCLA 100% to beat Long Beach State (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UCLA the more likely winner at 100%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UCLA a 100% chance of beating Long Beach State, against 1% for Long Beach State. UCLA are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Long Beach State (1-2 so far) project to finish 14.0–18.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UCLA (3-0 so far) project to finish 23.8–7.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 93% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Beach State | 14.0–18.0 | 6% | 5% |
| UCLA | 23.8–7.2 | 16% | 93% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Long Beach State and UCLA come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Long Beach State have won 1 of their last 3 (W-L-L, most recent first).
UCLA have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2018: Long Beach State 0, UCLA 2. The last meeting, on Nov 11, 2022, finished Long Beach State 69, UCLA 93.