College Basketball · Sun Belt
AccuScore projects Troy to finish 15.6–12.4 with a 20% chance of making the NCAA Tournament and a 0.1% chance of winning the national championship.
From the daily season simulation: every remaining game played out thousands of times, then the 76-team tournament. All 365 schools →
| Make the field | 20.1% | |
| Play in the First Round | 16.6% | |
| Reach the Second Round | 6.9% | |
| Reach the Sweet 16 | 2.9% | |
| Reach the Elite Eight | 1.1% | |
| Reach the Final Four | 0.5% | |
| Reach the Championship | 0.2% | |
| Win the national title | 0.1% |
Likeliest seed lines: 15 (3%), 14 (2%), 13 (2%), 16 (2%).
| School | Proj | Conf title | Tourney |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State | 17.0–12.0 | 16% | 22% |
| Louisiana Tech | 16.7–12.3 | 14% | 20% |
| South Alabama | 15.7–13.3 | 11% | 16% |
| Troy | 15.6–12.4 | 14% | 20% |
| James Madison | 15.6–13.4 | 11% | 15% |
| App State | 15.3–13.7 | 13% |
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| 18% |
| Southern Miss | 15.1–14.9 | 9% | 14% |
| Georgia Southern | 14.7–15.3 | 8% | 12% |
| Marshall | 14.3–13.7 | 10% | 13% |
| Old Dominion | 13.9–15.1 | 7% | 10% |
| Coastal Carolina | 13.0–16.0 | 6% | 9% |
| Georgia State | 12.0–17.0 | 4% | 5% |
| Louisiana | 10.7–17.3 | 3% | 5% |
| UL Monroe | 7.8–21.2 | 1% | 2% |