AccuScore ran the Miami Dolphins' rest of season 50,000 times with each possible starting quarterback — everything else held identical, same schedule, same 1-7-0 record, same other 31 teams. The only change: who lines up under center. The projected starter flipped from Malik Willis to Kyle McCord in AccuScore's season model, and the gap between the two outcomes is tiny but real.
| With Malik Willis | With Kyle McCord | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected wins | 3.69 | 3.2 | -0.49 |
| Playoff odds | 0.4% | 0.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Division odds | 0.1% | 0% | -0.1 pts |
| Conference odds | 0% | 0% | 0 |
| Super Bowl odds | 0.01% | 0% | -0.01 pts |
The per-game swing is modest: AccuScore's average expected margin in remaining games is -7.18 points with Willis and -9.56 with McCord, a difference of 2.38 points per game across Miami's final nine. That shows up in the next matchup too — AccuScore has the Dolphins at -2.8 at the Indianapolis Colts on 2026-11-15 with Willis starting, versus -5.2 with McCord.
Neither version moves the Miami Dolphins far from the bottom of the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills sit at 97.5% to 97.9% for the playoffs across both scenarios, and the New England Patriots stay in the 65%-to-65.9% range regardless of who starts at quarterback for Miami. The Dolphins' own playoff number barely registers either way — 0.4% or 0.1% — and their division odds round to essentially zero in both runs.
What would change this: AccuScore rates each quarterback on what he has done so far this season, not on name or draft status. If either Willis or McCord puts together a stretch of games that outperforms his season-long profile, the model's starter projection — and the numbers tied to it — would shift in the next run. For now, the separation between the two Miami Dolphins futures is small, and check AccuScore's Market Index and the Dolphins team page for how the numbers move from here.