A trade is not done yet. ESPN's Adam Schefter and NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported Wednesday that the Arizona Cardinals are finalizing a deal sending quarterback Jacoby Brissett to the Baltimore Ravens, expected to close this weekend. No report has confirmed Brissett will start, but ESPN notes his first game could come as soon as Monday, November 16 at home against the Los Angeles Chargers.
To see what's actually at stake, AccuScore simulated Baltimore's rest of season 50,000 times twice — once with undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano starting, once with Brissett — holding the schedule, results so far and every other team identical. Both scenarios start Fagnano on Thursday, November 5 at home against Jacksonville, so that game isn't a difference between the two; the first game that differs is the Chargers game on 16 November.
Monday, Nov. 16 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: Fagnano -3.2 points expected margin. Brissett: +1.4.
| Joe Fagnano | Jacoby Brissett | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected wins | 6.64 | 7.69 | +1.05 |
| Playoff chance | 7.5% | 18.8% | +11.3 pts |
| Division chance | 1.3% | 4.2% | +2.9 pts |
| Conference chance | 0.6% | 1% | +0.4 pts |
| Super Bowl chance | 0.29% | 0.42% | +0.13 pts |
AccuScore's average expected margin per remaining game improves from -7.14 with Fagnano to -3.07 with Brissett — a swing of roughly 4.1 points per game.
Baltimore needs a quarterback: Lamar Jackson has a right thumb injury requiring surgery that coach Jesse Minter called potentially season-ending, and Tyler Huntley's turf toe is reported to end his season. Fagnano is making his first career start. Brissett, meanwhile, was benched in the third quarter of Arizona's overtime win at Dallas on November 1, with Gardner Minshew named starter; he requested a trade the next day. Arizona went 3-5 with him starting this season and 1-11 last season.
Caveats matter here. Fagnano's number is built on a tiny sample and is the shakiest input in this model. Brissett's figure reflects his production in Arizona — the simulation swaps only the starter, not a new offense or new teammates. AccuScore rates players on what they've actually done, so if the trade falls through, or Brissett struggles adjusting, these odds would move again. Full season predictions and market context are at AccuScore's Market Index.