AccuScore simulated the rest of the Baltimore Ravens' season 50,000 times with Tyler Huntley starting at quarterback, then ran it again 50,000 times with Joe Fagnano starting instead — everything else held identical: the schedule, the 4-4-0 record so far, and the other 31 teams. The run was done 2026-11-03, the same day AccuScore's projected starter for the Ravens changed from Huntley to Fagnano.
The verdict: Huntley gives Baltimore a clearly better shot at the postseason.
| With Tyler Huntley | With Joe Fagnano | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected wins | 7.62 | 6.78 | -0.84 |
| Playoff odds | 17.7% | 8.7% | -9.0 pts |
| Division odds | 3.6% | 1.4% | -2.2 pts |
| Conference odds | 1% | 0.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Super Bowl odds | 0.44% | 0.26% | -0.18 pts |
The gap shows up on a per-game basis too. With Huntley, AccuScore's average expected margin across the Ravens' remaining nine games is -3.24 points. With Fagnano, that average swings to -6.68 points — a 3.44-point swing per game in Huntley's favor.
It shows immediately in the next game. Against the Jacksonville Jaguars on 2026-11-05, AccuScore has Baltimore at -9.9 points with Huntley starting, but -13.4 points with Fagnano.
The AFC North race stays tight regardless of who starts. With Huntley, the Cincinnati Bengals (50.1% division, 83.1% playoff) and Pittsburgh Steelers (37.8% division, 78.4% playoff) remain the favorites, with the Ravens at 3.6% division and 17.7% playoff odds. Swap in Fagnano and the picture barely moves for Cincinnati (50.1% division, 84.3% playoff) and Pittsburgh (39.8% division, 82% playoff) — it's Baltimore's own number that drops, to 1.4% division and 8.7% playoff odds.
What could flip this: AccuScore rates each quarterback on what he has done so far this season, not on potential or role fit. If either Huntley's or Fagnano's on-field performance shifts going forward, these projections would update with it.
Full season odds and more scenarios are tracked on AccuScore's season predictions page and the Ravens team page, with market comparisons at the Market Index.