Ravens rookie quarterback Joe Fagnano gets his first NFL start Thursday night against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and AccuScore's simulation of the matchup paints a tough picture for Baltimore's debut.
Running the game 50,000 times, AccuScore gives the Jaguars a 79.1% win probability, with the Ravens at just 20.7%. That gap lines up with where each team sits in the standings: Jacksonville is 5-2, Baltimore 4-4.
The disparity shows up across the full season outlook too. AccuScore's simulated season projects the Jaguars to finish 12-5 with a 93% playoff probability. Baltimore's simulated season comes in at 7.6-9.4 with an 18.7% playoff probability — nowhere close to the Jaguars' number.
The betting market tells a similar story about Baltimore's standing. AccuScore's Market Index, which rates teams purely off betting prices, has the Ravens ranked 16th of 32 for Week 8, up from 13th the previous week, with a rating of +0.22 points. That's a middling number for a team that was expected to contend, and it's the backdrop against which Fagnano takes over.
None of this is a verdict on Fagnano himself — AccuScore's simulation is built on team performance to date, not on an untested rookie's debut. But the numbers do make clear what kind of opponent he's facing in his first start: a 5-2 Jacksonville team AccuScore rates a heavy favorite, projected for 12 wins and a 93% playoff probability, on the road against a Ravens team whose season-long outlook has sat below .500 in the simulation.
For full matchup breakdowns and win probabilities across the rest of the NFL slate, AccuScore runs every game 50,000 times to generate its numbers before kickoff.