AccuScore ran the Minnesota Vikings' rest of season 50,000 times twice — once with Kyler Murray starting the rest of the way, once with Carson Wentz — holding the schedule, the 6-1-0 record, and the other 31 teams identical. The only variable: who lines up under center. The question fans are asking after Minnesota's projected starter changed from Murray to Wentz is how much that actually costs them. The answer, per AccuScore's season predictions: 6.1 points of playoff probability, and a lot more in the division race.
| With Kyler Murray | With Carson Wentz | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Projected Wins: 12.06 | Projected Wins: 11.49 | -0.57 |
| Playoff Odds: 88.3% | Playoff Odds: 82.2% | -6.1 pts |
| Division Odds: 45.4% | Division Odds: 36.1% | -9.3 pts |
| Conference Odds: 16.5% | Conference Odds: 14.7% | -1.8 pts |
| Super Bowl Odds: 7.53% | Super Bowl Odds: 7.06% | -0.47 pts |
The per-game gap is the real driver. With Murray, AccuScore's model has Minnesota favored by an average of 3.85 points across its remaining ten games. With Wentz, that average shrinks to 1.86 points — a swing of roughly 2 points per game, compounding over a ten-game stretch.
It shows up immediately in the next matchup. AccuScore has the Vikings favored by 1.4 points over the Buffalo Bills on 2026-11-09 with Murray starting. Swap in Wentz, and that same game flips to a 3.3-point projected loss.
The division race tightens too. With Murray, Minnesota's 45.4% share of the NFC North sits well ahead of Chicago (25.7%) and Detroit (21.7%). With Wentz, Chicago closes in on Minnesota in division odds, 30% to 36.1% isn't a huge gap, but it's a different race than the Murray scenario's 19.7-point cushion.
What would change this answer: AccuScore rates each quarterback on what he's done so far this season, not on name recognition or draft pedigree. If Wentz's on-field performance shifts once he's actually taking the snaps, the model's next run will reflect that — these two scenarios are a snapshot of the gap AccuScore sees right now. Check the Market Index and the Vikings team page for how the numbers move once real games are played.