AccuScore ran the Las Vegas Raiders' rest of season 50,000 times with each starting quarterback, everything else held identical — same schedule, same 4-5-0 record so far, same 31 opponents. The gap is wide: projected wins fall from 7.08 with Kirk Cousins to 5.83 with Fernando Mendoza, and the playoff number drops from 12.7% to 2.8%.
| With Kirk Cousins | With Fernando Mendoza | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Projected wins: 7.08 | Projected wins: 5.83 | -1.25 |
| Playoff: 12.7% | Playoff: 2.8% | -9.9 |
| Division: 2.8% | Division: 0.5% | -2.3 |
| Conference: 0.3% | Conference: 0.1% | -0.2 |
| Super Bowl: 0.11% | Super Bowl: 0.06% | -0.05 |
The swing shows up in the per-game math. With Cousins, AccuScore's average expected margin across the Raiders' eight remaining games is -3.8 points. With Mendoza, that average slides to -9.96 points — a difference of 6.16 points per game.
It also shows up game by game. Next up, the Raiders host the Seattle Seahawks on November 15: AccuScore has Las Vegas as 6.7-point underdogs with Cousins, but 12.8-point underdogs with Mendoza. The pattern repeats across the schedule — at the Denver Broncos on November 22 (-10.1 vs -16.3), at the Cleveland Browns on November 29 (-2 vs -8.1), and at the Kansas City Chiefs on January 10 (-8.5 vs -14.7).
The AFC West race doesn't change shape much either way. The Denver Broncos sit at 58.9% to win the division with Cousins starting for Las Vegas and 62.8% with Mendoza; the Kansas City Chiefs move from 38.3% to 36.8%. The Raiders themselves go from 2.8% to 0.5% to win the division, and the Los Angeles Chargers stay near 0% in both scenarios.
What could change this answer: AccuScore's quarterback rating is built on what each passer has done so far this season, not projection of future growth. If Mendoza's performance shifts meaningfully from his season-to-date numbers, the gap between these two scenarios would move with it. For now, this is AccuScore's current read on the Las Vegas Raiders' Market Index and season outlook at the team page.