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← Today's Edges
World Cup•FINALSilver Edge
FRA

France

0

:
ESP

Spain

2

Win Probability

Moneyline

FRA

+164

40.6% win prob

EV +3.6%

Pinnacle

Draw

Draw

+199

30% prob

EV -5.1%

Pinnacle

Moneyline

ESP

+221

29.4% win prob

EV -2.8%

Pinnacle

Probability Explorer— drag to explore lines

Total (Over/Under)O/U 2.5
0.53.56.5
Over Cover
43.6%
EV -8.4%
-110bet365 ↗
Under Cover
56.4%
EV +3.9%
-110bet365 ↗

Goal Scorer Probabilities

Spain

Yamal Lamine
25%
Mikel Oyarzabal
24%
Dani Olmo
12%
Pedri
12%
Fabian Ruiz
9%
Rodri
7%

France

Kylian Mbappe
27%
Ousmane Dembele
25%
Desire Doue
21%
Michael Olise
21%
Adrien Rabiot
9%
Manu Kone
5%

Odds Comparison

Away / Draw / Home

BookFRAEVDrawEVESPEV
Pinnacle ↗+164+3.6%+199-5.1%+221-2.8%
Betfair ↗+150+0.8%+188-6.8%+210-4.4%
bet365 ↗+155+1.8%+190-6.5%+220-3.0%

Total (O/U)

BookLineOverEV (O)UnderEV (U)
Pinnacle ↗2.5-108-8.1%-102+5.9%
Betfair ↗0.5-2500-2.6%+1000-1.1%
Betano ↗3.25+170—-200—
bet365 ↗2.5-110-8.4%-110+3.9%
ESP 4-2-3-1Lineup4-2-3-1 FRA
MaignanKoundéUpamecanoSalibaDigneTchouaméniRabiotDembéléOliseBarcolaMbappéSimónPorroCubarsíLaporteCucurellaRodriRuizYamalOlmoBaenaOyarzabal
ESPFRA

Match Events

86
🟨
Kylian Mbappé
FRA
58
⚽
Pedro Porro(ass. Dani Olmo)
ESP
31
🟨
Marc Cucurella
ESP
22
⚽
Mikel Oyarzabal
ESP
9
🟨
Adrien Rabiot
FRA

Match Statistics

ESPPossessionFRA
51%
49%
10
Shots
10
2
On Target
3
1
Corners
7
12
Fouls
11
5
Offsides
4
3
Saves
0
1.63
xG
0.30
500 (428)
Passes
473 (396)
4-2-3-1
Formation
4-2-3-1

Player Stats

ESP

#PlayerMinGAPssSvRat
23Unai SimónG90——37(19)37.2
22Pau CubarsíD90——32(29)—7.5
14Aymeric LaporteD90——76(70)—7.3
24Marc CucurellaD90——38(33)—7.2
12Pedro PorroD841—28(23)—8.2
16RodriM90——68(59)—7.7
19Lamine YamalM90——29(24)—6.7
15Alex BaenaM84——27(22)—6.7
8Fabián RuizM78——65(56)—7
10Dani OlmoM78—130(29)—6.9
21Mikel OyarzabalF741—24(22)—7
Substitutes
1David RayaG sub——————
13Joan GarcíaG sub——————
2Marc PubillD sub——————
4Eric GarcíaD sub——————
3Alejandro GrimaldoD sub——————
5Marcos LlorenteM sub13——7(7)—6.6
6Mikel MerinoM sub12——10(9)—6.9
20PedriM sub12——19(17)—6.3
18Martín ZubimendiM sub——————
9Pablo GaviM sub——————
11Yéremy PinoM sub——————
7Ferran TorresF sub16——6(5)—6.3
17Nico WilliamsF sub13——4(4)—6.7
26Borja IglesiasF sub——————
25Víctor MuñozF sub——————

Where to Bet

silver
FRA ML+3.6% EV

Win probability: 40.6%

Pinnacle
+164Bet →
bet365
+155Bet →
Betfair
+150Bet →

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World Cup

France vs Spain Prediction

Final · FRA 0–2 ESP · Tue, Jul 14, 2026, 3:00 PM ET

AccuScore's simulation makes France 41% to win, Spain 29%, with a 30% chance of a draw. Final score: France 0, Spain 2.

Projection updated Aug 17, 4:34 PM ET

Who will win France vs Spain?

AccuScore's simulation makes France the more likely winner at 41%, with a 30% chance of a draw. The game finished France 0, Spain 2.

Will Spain beat France?

AccuScore's simulation gives Spain a 29% chance of beating France, with 41% for France and 30% for a draw. It finished Spain 2, France 0.

France predictions & record →Spain predictions & record →

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How France and Spain come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

FranceWWWWW
  • Jul 9at MoroccoW 2–0
  • Jul 4vs ParaguayW 1–0
  • Jun 30at SwedenW 3–0
  • Jun 26vs NorwayW 4–1
  • Jun 22at IraqW 3–0

France have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).

SpainWWWWW
  • Jul 10at BelgiumW 2–1
  • Jul 6vs PortugalW 1–0
  • Jul 2at AustriaW 3–0
  • Jun 26vs UruguayW 1–0
  • Jun 21at Saudi ArabiaW 4–0

Spain have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).