NCAAF
Western Kentucky
3-0
Middle Tennessee
4-0
Win Probability
Moneyline
WKU
-125
55.3% win prob
EV -0.2%
Hard Rock Bet
Moneyline
MTSU
+120
44.7% win prob
EV -0.8%
DraftKings
Western Kentucky travels to face Middle Tennessee in a matchup between undefeated teams where the simulation leans slightly toward the visiting Hilltoppers. The game hinges on passing volume: Roman Gagliano is projected for 200 yards while Brock Glenn reaches 170, a gap that reflects how much more Middle Tennessee's offense will need to operate through the air to keep pace. Across eight historically similar games, the favored side won 5 of 8. For Middle Tennessee to pull off the upset at home, it would need Gagliano to exceed that projection significantly while limiting Glenn's efficiency.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H WKU ML
WKU -118
-0.7% EV
49.2% leads · push 7.6%
betPARX ↗
1H MTSU ML
MTSU +110
-0.9% EV
43.2% leads · push 7.6%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
WKU -0.5 +100
-0.8% EV
49.2% covers
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Spread
MTSU +0.5 -110
-1.5% EV
50.8% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 26.5 -125
-2.3% EV
53.0% over
betPARX ↗
1H Total
U 26.5 +105
-1.8% EV
47.0% under
DraftKings ↗
| Book | Line | MTSU | EV | WKU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +2.5 | -108 | -0.9% | -112 | -3.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +2.5 | -106 | -0.4% | -112 | -3.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +2.5 | -108 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | +2.5 | -109 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +2.5 | +100 | +1.0% | -120 | -5.1% |
| Book | MTSU | EV | WKU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +120 | -0.8% | -142 | -2.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +110 | -3.1% | -132 | -1.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +110 | -3.1% | -135 | -1.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | +114 | -2.2% | -134 | -1.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +120 | -0.8% | -140 | -2.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 53.5 | -108 | -1.5% | -112 | -3.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 53.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 53.5 | -108 | -1.5% | -110 | -2.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 53.5 | -108 | -1.5% | -112 | -3.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 53.5 | -105 | -0.8% | -115 | -3.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.0%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Western Kentucky 55% to beat Middle Tennessee (45%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Western Kentucky the more likely winner at 55%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Middle Tennessee a 45% chance of beating Western Kentucky, against 55% for Western Kentucky. Middle Tennessee are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Western Kentucky (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.4–7.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Middle Tennessee (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.4–6.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Kentucky | 4.4–7.6 | <1% | 0% |
| Middle Tennessee | 5.4–6.6 | <1% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Western Kentucky have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Middle Tennessee have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Western Kentucky are 68-28 as favourite and 26-40 as underdog, and 48-46 on the road (51% of 94 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | WKU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 68-28 | — |
| As underdog | 26-40 | — |
| At home | 49-26 | — |
| On the road | 48-46 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →