Sam Houston
1-0
Jacksonville State
6-0
Win Probability
Jacksonville State hosts Sam Houston in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Caden Creel projects for 180 passing yards while DJ Bailey is expected to manage just 50, a disparity that frames this game's central imbalance. The Gamecocks' rushing attack, led by Jalen Likely at 45 yards, should control tempo against a Sam Houston side where MJ Dowdy figures for 30 rushing yards. When AccuScore's model has leaned this strongly in past games of similar shape, it won 86 percent of the time across 1,760 graded matchups. For the Bearkats to pull the upset, their defence would need to disrupt Jacksonville State's ground game early and force Creel into obvious passing situations where mistakes become exploitable.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H SHSU ML
SHSU +460
+2.2% EV
17.6% leads · push 5.9%
FanDuel ↗
1H JXST ML
JXST -590
-2.3% EV
76.5% leads · push 5.9%
betPARX ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
SHSU +10.5 -118
+1.2% EV
55.4% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
JXST -10.5 +100
-5.4% EV
44.6% covers
Caesars ↗
1H Total
O 24.5 -102
-4.1% EV
46.3% over
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
U 24.5 -112
+0.8% EV
53.7% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | JXST | EV | SHSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -17.5 | -102 | -3.6% | -118 | -0.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -17.5 | -106 | -4.5% | -114 | -0.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -17 | -108 | -3.1% | -110 | -0.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | -17 | -110 | -3.5% | -110 | -0.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -17.5 | -105 | -4.3% | -115 | -0.3% |
| Book | JXST | EV | SHSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -850 | -1.4% | +575 | -5.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1050 | -2.4% | +660 | -0.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -800 | -1.1% | +600 | -4.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -850 | -1.4% | +550 | -7.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -900 | -1.7% | +550 | -7.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 47.5 | -120 | -4.8% | +100 | +0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 48.5 | -105 | -4.2% | -115 | -0.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 48.5 | -105 | -4.2% | -112 | +0.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 48 | -110 | -4.0% | -110 | -0.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 48.5 | -105 | -4.2% | -115 | -0.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Jacksonville State 87% to beat Sam Houston (13%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Jacksonville State the more likely winner at 87%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Jacksonville State a 87% chance of beating Sam Houston, against 13% for Sam Houston. Jacksonville State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Sam Houston (1-7 so far) project to finish 2.5–9.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Jacksonville State (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.5–3.5 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston | 2.5–9.5 | 0% | 0% |
| Jacksonville State | 8.5–3.5 | 14% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Sam Houston and Jacksonville State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Sam Houston have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Jacksonville State have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).