New Mexico State
3-6
Missouri State
3-6
Win Probability
Missouri State hosts New Mexico State in a matchup where the simulation leans toward the home side. The game hinges on offensive efficiency: Missouri State's Henry Belin IV is projected for 170 passing yards while New Mexico State's Trey Hedden projects for just 70, a gap that reflects vastly different offensive capabilities. James Jones figures to carry the offensive load for the travelling Aggies with 70 projected rushing yards, but that volume may not be enough to overcome the Aggies' passing limitations. On similar games shaped this way, AccuScore's favored side won 55% of the time. New Mexico State would need to generate explosive plays beyond what the model expects—particularly through the air—to pull off the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | MOST | EV | NMSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -136 | +1.4% | +105 | -8.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -158 | -1.7% | -101 | -9.4% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Missouri State 59% to beat New Mexico State (41%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Missouri State the more likely winner at 59%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Missouri State a 59% chance of beating New Mexico State, against 41% for New Mexico State. Missouri State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
New Mexico State (3-6 so far) project to finish 4.7–7.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Missouri State (3-6 so far) project to finish 4.6–7.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico State | 4.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% |
| Missouri State | 4.6–7.4 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How New Mexico State and Missouri State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New Mexico State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
Missouri State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
New Mexico State are 16-8 as favourite and 14-104 as underdog, and 16-71 on the road (18% of 87 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | NMSU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 16-8 | — |
| As underdog | 14-104 | — |
| At home | 17-47 | — |
| On the road | 16-71 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →