NCAAF
Florida International
4-5
Delaware
4-5
Win Probability
Florida International travels to Delaware for a matchup between evenly matched teams, each sitting at 4–5. The model leans clearly toward the Fightin' Blue Hens at home. Both offences will need to execute in the passing game; the simulation projects Delaware's quarterback to clear 240 passing yards with 66% probability, while Florida International's passer reaches that mark in 58% of outcomes. This game turns on third-down efficiency—whichever team sustains drives will control tempo and field position. In games shaped this way across AccuScore's record, the favoured side won 66% of the time. For Florida International to pull the upset, the Owls would need to force multiple three-and-outs while their own drives stall less frequently than the model expects.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | DEL | EV | FIU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | -5.5 | -125 | -3.1% | +108 | -0.2% |
| ProphetX ↗ | -5.5 | -131 | -4.0% | -120 | -6.1% |
| Book | DEL | EV | FIU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -218 | -1.6% | +174 | -4.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -258 | -3.9% | +155 | -7.2% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Delaware 66% to beat Florida International (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Delaware the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Delaware a 66% chance of beating Florida International, against 34% for Florida International. Delaware are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Florida International (4-5 so far) project to finish 5.6–6.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Delaware (4-5 so far) project to finish 5.4–6.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida International | 5.6–6.4 | 0% | 0% |
| Delaware | 5.4–6.6 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Florida International and Delaware come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Florida International have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
Delaware have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).