Middle Tennessee
5-4
Liberty
8-1
Win Probability
Middle Tennessee travels to face Liberty in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. AccuScore's model has run 50,000 simulations and leans heavily toward Liberty, which has won 93% of the time in games where the model has shown this degree of confidence across a sample of 1,314 graded contests. The Blue Raiders will need to generate consistent offensive pressure; Liberty's defence will be the deciding factor, and Middle Tennessee's path to an upset runs through forcing stops and controlling possession. For the visitors to pull off the result, their passing game would need to overcome Liberty's scheme in ways the simulation projects as unlikely at only a 7% win probability.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | LIB | EV | MTSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -1429 | -0.2% | +944 | -13.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1649 | -0.7% | +770 | -19.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 52.5 | -130 | -3.0% | -111 | -5.4% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Liberty 93% to beat Middle Tennessee (7%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Liberty the more likely winner at 93%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Liberty a 93% chance of beating Middle Tennessee, against 7% for Middle Tennessee. Liberty are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Middle Tennessee (5-4 so far) project to finish 5.8–6.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Liberty (8-1 so far) project to finish 9.8–2.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee | 5.8–6.2 | 1% | 0% |
| Liberty | 9.8–2.2 | 85% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Middle Tennessee and Liberty come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Middle Tennessee have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
Liberty have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Liberty are 30-12 as favourite and 9-12 as underdog, and 23-8 at home (74% of 31 games, 2018–2026).
| Record | MTSU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | — | 30-12 |
| As underdog | — | 9-12 |
| At home | — | 23-8 |
| On the road | — | 21-18 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →