Middle Tennessee
5-5
Sam Houston
1-9
Win Probability
Middle Tennessee travels to Sam Houston as a clear favorite in this matchup between a.500 team and one struggling at 1-9. The simulation leans strongly toward the Blue Raiders, who project to rely on Roman Gagliano's 200 passing yards and Antonio Martin's 65 rushing yards to control the game. Sam Houston's Landyn Locke will need to exceed his projected 160 passing yards significantly for the Bearkats to stay competitive, as the gap in offensive efficiency appears decisive. AccuScore's model favored sides in this win-probability range in 66% of 2,539 graded games. For Sam Houston to pull the upset, their passing attack would need to sustain drives well beyond current projections while Middle Tennessee's offense stalls.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | SHSU | EV | MTSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +5.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.6% |
| Book | SHSU | EV | MTSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +168 | -2.3% | -205 | -2.1% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +189 | +1.4% | -239 | -4.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +169 | -2.1% | -258 | -5.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | +1.3% | -110 | -5.8% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 35.6%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Middle Tennessee 64% to beat Sam Houston (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Middle Tennessee the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Sam Houston a 36% chance of beating Middle Tennessee, against 64% for Middle Tennessee. Sam Houston are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Middle Tennessee (5-5 so far) project to finish 6.1–5.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Sam Houston (1-9 so far) project to finish 1.7–10.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee | 6.1–5.9 | 0% | 0% |
| Sam Houston | 1.7–10.3 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Middle Tennessee and Sam Houston come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Middle Tennessee have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Sam Houston have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).