RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
Win Probability
Moneyline
RBL
52.6% win prob
Draw
Draw
28% prob
Moneyline
FCU
19.6% win prob
Union Berlin hosts RB Leipzig in a Bundesliga clash where the simulation leans clearly toward the visitors. Leipzig's offensive threat will be central to the outcome: the model projects them to breach the Union defence enough times to control the game, though the hosts' ability to limit high-danger chances could yet tighten the scoreline. On games shaped this way—where the away side carries a strong but not overwhelming advantage—AccuScore's model has won 6 of 8 comparable matchups. For Union to upset that lean, they would need to turn their home advantage into consistent pressure and exploit any Leipzig vulnerability on the break.
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Bundesliga
AccuScore's simulation makes RB Leipzig 53% to win, Union Berlin 20%, with a 28% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes RB Leipzig the more likely winner at 53%, with a 28% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Union Berlin a 20% chance of beating RB Leipzig, with 53% for RB Leipzig and 28% for a draw. Union Berlin are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How RB Leipzig and Union Berlin come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
RB Leipzig have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
Union Berlin have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 3 (D-D-D-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 14 times since 2019: RB Leipzig 6, Union Berlin 6, 2 drawn. The last meeting, on Apr 24, 2026, finished Union Berlin 1, RB Leipzig 3.