Bundesliga • Sat, Nov 28, 14:30
Union Berlin travels to face Mainz 05 in a Bundesliga fixture where the simulation decisively favors the hosts. AccuScore's model projects a low-scoring affair, with Mainz 05 expected to control the match and Union Berlin struggling to generate chances. In games where the model has leaned this strongly toward one side, that team won 68% of the time across nearly 4,000 comparable matchups.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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Bundesliga
AccuScore's simulation makes Mainz 05 76% to win, Union Berlin 7%, with a 17% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Mainz 05 the more likely winner at 76%, with a 17% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Mainz 05 a 76% chance of beating Union Berlin, with 7% for Union Berlin and 17% for a draw. Mainz 05 are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Union Berlin and Mainz 05 come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Union Berlin have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 3 (L-D-D-D-W, most recent first).
Mainz 05 have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 14 times since 2019: Union Berlin 8, Mainz 05 1, 5 drawn. The last meeting, on May 10, 2026, finished Union Berlin 3, Mainz 05 1.