NCAAB
Murray State
Tennessee State
Win Probability
Murray State travels to face Tennessee State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the visiting Racers. The model projects a low-scoring affair that hinges on three-point shooting: if Tennessee State's perimeter offense can sustain 48% from distance, the home side stays competitive, but Murray State's defense has shown the ability to suppress that volume. On games with a similar win-probability shape across AccuScore's historical record, the favored side won seven of eight. For Tennessee State to pull the upset, the Tigers would need to control the pace and force Murray State into an extended scoring drought—a tall order against a team the simulation has decisively backed.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | TNST | EV | MUR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +400 | +14.0% | -535 | -5.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +440 | +19.1% | -610 | -6.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +400 | +14.0% | -550 | -6.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | +400 | +14.0% | -550 | -6.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +400 | +14.0% | -600 | -6.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 164.5 | -108 | -1.5% | -112 | -3.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 164.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 164.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 164.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 164.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Murray State 74% to beat Tennessee State (26%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Murray State the more likely winner at 74%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tennessee State a 26% chance of beating Murray State, against 74% for Murray State. Tennessee State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Murray State project to finish 16.4–14.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Tennessee State project to finish 14.0–10.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 27% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Murray State | 16.4–14.6 | 9% | 18% |
| Tennessee State | 14.0–10.0 | 27% | 27% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →