College Basketball · Missouri Valley
AccuScore projects Murray State to finish 16.4–14.6 with a 18% chance of making the NCAA Tournament and a 0.1% chance of winning the national championship.
From the daily season simulation: every remaining game played out thousands of times, then the 76-team tournament. All 365 schools →
| Make the field | 18.4% | |
| Play in the First Round | 15.2% | |
| Reach the Second Round | 6.9% | |
| Reach the Sweet 16 | 3.0% | |
| Reach the Elite Eight | 1.4% | |
| Reach the Final Four | 0.6% | |
| Reach the Championship | 0.3% | |
| Win the national title | 0.1% |
Likeliest seed lines: 13 (2%), 14 (2%), 15 (2%), 12 (2%).
| School | Proj | Conf title | Tourney |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belmont | 17.9–12.1 | 19% | 34% |
| Northern Iowa | 17.6–12.4 | 20% | 38% |
| UIC | 16.9–13.1 | 13% | 25% |
| Murray State | 16.4–14.6 | 9% | 18% |
| Illinois State | 16.2–13.8 | 14% | 27% |
| Southern Illinois | 16.2–12.8 | 12% |
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| 23% |
| Bradley | 15.6–13.4 | 11% | 22% |
| Drake | 15.3–15.7 | 8% | 17% |
| Valparaiso | 14.2–14.8 | 8% | 16% |
| Indiana State | 12.6–15.4 | 5% | 12% |
| Evansville | 9.8–19.2 | 2% | 4% |