NCAAB
UMBC
George Mason
Win Probability
Moneyline
UMBC
+1500
13.8% win prob
EV +60.4%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
GMU
-2105
86.2% win prob
EV -4.9%
Polymarket
UMBC travels to face George Mason in a game where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Retrievers must slow a Patriots offense that projects to the mid-70s; George Mason's defense will be critical to keeping UMBC's scoring down. AccuScore's model on eight similar matchups went 8-0, a perfect record that reflects how reliable such disparities tend to be. For the visiting Retrievers to pull the upset, they would need to generate efficient scoring themselves while forcing the Patriots into an uncharacteristically poor shooting night.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | GMU | EV | UMBC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -2400 | -5.1% | +1200 | +39.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -3500 | -5.7% | +1280 | +45.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -2500 | -5.2% | +1100 | +32.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | -2400 | -5.1% | +1150 | +36.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -5000 | -6.0% | +1500 | +60.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 146.5 | -108 | -7.4% | -112 | +2.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | -10.0% | -110 | +5.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 146.5 | -115 | -8.7% | -105 | +4.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -7.8% | -110 | +3.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -7.8% | -110 | +3.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes George Mason 86% to beat UMBC (14%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes George Mason the more likely winner at 86%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives George Mason a 86% chance of beating UMBC, against 14% for UMBC. George Mason are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UMBC project to finish 18.2–10.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 35% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
George Mason project to finish 17.4–13.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC | 18.2–10.8 | 37% | 35% |
| George Mason | 17.4–13.6 | 8% | 20% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →