NCAAB
Howard
Yale
Win Probability
Howard travels to Yale in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. AccuScore's model projects a low-scoring affair that turns on perimeter shooting; the combined score has just a 49% chance of clearing the total. In games shaped statistically like this one, the model has won 7 of its last 8 picks. Howard would need to shoot significantly above expectation and force Yale into an uncharacteristic offensive struggle to pull the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | YALE | EV | HOW | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -265 | -1.1% | +215 | -4.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -275 | -1.6% | +220 | -3.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -267 | -1.2% | +215 | -4.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -260 | -0.8% | +215 | -4.3% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -295 | -2.5% | +225 | -2.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 152.5 | -112 | -6.2% | -108 | +1.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -115 | -6.7% | -105 | +2.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -5.8% | -110 | +1.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -5.8% | -110 | +1.3% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 151.5 | -112 | -4.0% | -114 | -1.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Yale 71% to beat Howard (29%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Yale the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Yale a 71% chance of beating Howard, against 29% for Howard. Yale are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Howard project to finish 17.9–10.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 39% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Yale project to finish 15.8–10.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 40% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →