NCAAB
Florida Gulf Coast
UCF
Win Probability
Moneyline
FGCU
+3000
6.6% win prob
EV +52.3%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
UCF
-4925
93.4% win prob
EV -2.4%
Polymarket
Florida Gulf Coast travels to UCF in a matchup where the simulation strongly favors the home side. The Eagles face a steep climb against a Knights team the model projects to dominate the pace and volume of scoring. On games with this win-probability shape across similar competition, AccuScore's pick has gone 8 for 8. Florida Gulf Coast would need to disrupt UCF's rhythm and manufacture stops at a rate well above what the numbers suggest is likely. A significant upset here would require the Eagles to play nearly perfect basketball for 40 minutes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | UCF | EV | FGCU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -6500 | -2.6% | +2000 | +19.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -8000 | -2.7% | +2200 | +25.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -20000 | -3.1% | +3000 | +52.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -4925 | -2.4% | +1719 | +10.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -4.6% | -110 | +0.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -2.0% | -110 | -2.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -4.6% | -110 | +0.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -4.6% | -110 | +0.0% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 151.5 | -127 | -2.8% | +100 | -2.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes UCF 93% to beat Florida Gulf Coast (7%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UCF the more likely winner at 93%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UCF a 93% chance of beating Florida Gulf Coast, against 7% for Florida Gulf Coast. UCF are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Florida Gulf Coast project to finish 14.0–15.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UCF project to finish 15.6–15.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 26% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Gulf Coast | 14.0–15.0 | 15% | 18% |
| UCF | 15.6–15.4 | 3% | 26% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →