NCAAB
St. Thomas
Presbyterian
Win Probability
St. Thomas travels to face Presbyterian in a matchup where the simulation favours the visitors clearly. The game hinges on three-point shooting: how efficiently each team converts from beyond the arc will likely determine whether this stays tight or opens up. On similar games in AccuScore's record, the favoured side has won five of eight. For Presbyterian to pull off the upset at home, their perimeter defence would need to tighten significantly and force St. Thomas into an off shooting night.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | PRES | EV | STMN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +2.5 | -110 | -3.3% | -110 | -1.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | +2.5 | -110 | -3.3% | -110 | -1.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +3 | -115 | -2.3% | -105 | -2.0% |
| BetRivers ↗ | +2.5 | -114 | -4.1% | -114 | -2.0% |
| Book | PRES | EV | STMN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +136 | -0.3% | -161 | -3.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | +130 | -1.6% | -154 | -2.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +130 | -1.6% | -154 | -2.3% |
| BetRivers ↗ | +123 | -3.1% | -156 | -2.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | -3.5% | -110 | -1.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | -3.5% | -110 | -1.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | -3.5% | -110 | -1.0% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 146.5 | -108 | -5.7% | -120 | -0.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes St. Thomas 58% to beat Presbyterian (42%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes St. Thomas the more likely winner at 58%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Presbyterian a 42% chance of beating St. Thomas, against 58% for St. Thomas. Presbyterian are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
St. Thomas project to finish 17.7–11.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 34% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Presbyterian project to finish 12.6–15.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Thomas | 17.7–11.3 | 32% | 34% |
| Presbyterian | 12.6–15.4 | 9% | 12% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →