NCAAB
Charleston Southern
South Florida
Win Probability
Moneyline
CHSO
+1500
7.8% win prob
EV +12.4%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
USF
-2400
92.2% win prob
EV -2.0%
DraftKings
Charleston Southern travels to face South Florida in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Bulls are projected to control pace and efficiency, with South Florida's offensive weapons expected to create separation—particularly through their perimeter scoring and ball movement. For Charleston Southern to pull off the upset, the Buccaneers would need to force turnovers and limit second-chance opportunities, as offensive rebounding and transition defense are where most games of this probability shape are decided. AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8 on similar matchups over its sample. The combined score sits near the break-even point, leaving room for either a defensive grind or a tempo-driven affair.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | USF | EV | CHSO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -2400 | -2.0% | +1200 | +0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -4000 | -2.7% | +1400 | +8.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -5000 | -3.0% | +1500 | +12.4% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -10000 | -3.4% | +1400 | +8.5% |
| Hard Rock Bet ↗ | -5000 | -3.0% | +1400 | +8.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | +1.7% | -110 | -6.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | +1.7% | -110 | -6.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | +1.7% | -110 | -6.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | +1.7% | -110 | -6.3% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 158.5 | -118 | +0.1% | -108 | -5.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes South Florida 92% to beat Charleston Southern (8%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes South Florida the more likely winner at 92%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives South Florida a 92% chance of beating Charleston Southern, against 8% for Charleston Southern. South Florida are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Charleston Southern project to finish 13.9–15.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
South Florida project to finish 21.5–10.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 47% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston Southern | 13.9–15.1 | 9% | 13% |
| South Florida | 21.5–10.5 | 29% | 47% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →