NCAAB
NJIT
Dayton
Win Probability
Moneyline
NJIT
+3000
4.1% win prob
EV +13.5%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
DAY
-8000
95.9% win prob
EV -1.5%
DraftKings
NJIT travels to Dayton as a massive underdog in a game the simulation favours decisively to the home side. The Flyers will need to control pace and limit the visitors' chances to score in transition, the critical variable that shapes this matchup. On similar game shapes across eight other fixtures, the favoured side has won all eight. For NJIT to pull the upset, their bench would need to produce at a level well above projection, offsetting Dayton's advantage in depth and execution.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | DAY | EV | NJIT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -8000 | -1.5% | +2200 | -2.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10000 | -1.6% | +2500 | +3.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -20000 | -1.8% | +3000 | +13.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -9962 | -1.6% | +2171 | -3.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 145.5 | -105 | -8.0% | -115 | +3.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | -9.0% | -110 | +4.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | -9.0% | -110 | +4.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 145.5 | -105 | -8.0% | -115 | +3.3% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 145.5 | -112 | -9.3% | -114 | +3.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Dayton 96% to beat NJIT (4%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Dayton the more likely winner at 96%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Dayton a 96% chance of beating NJIT, against 4% for NJIT. Dayton are at home and favoured on these numbers.
NJIT project to finish 12.1–18.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Dayton project to finish 19.3–12.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 33% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →