NCAAB
Massachusetts
Troy
Win Probability
Massachusetts travels to Troy in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the home side. The Trojans project to win a low-scoring battle that hinges on perimeter efficiency—both teams figure to operate in the mid-to-high 70s, making three-point shooting decisive. On similar games with this win-probability shape across eight other matchups, AccuScore's model went 7-1. For Massachusetts to pull the upset, they would need to exceed their projected scoring while holding Troy below its simulation estimate, a combination the numbers suggest comes in well under half the time.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | TROY | EV | MASS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -148 | +2.3% | +124 | -7.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -162 | +0.5% | +134 | -6.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -155 | +1.3% | +125 | -7.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -150 | +2.0% | +126 | -7.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -145 | +2.7% | +125 | -7.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 154.5 | -112 | -6.6% | -108 | +2.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -8.4% | -110 | +3.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 155.5 | -105 | -7.4% | -115 | +2.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -6.2% | -110 | +1.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -6.2% | -110 | +1.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 62.4%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Troy 62% to beat Massachusetts (38%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Troy the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Troy a 62% chance of beating Massachusetts, against 38% for Massachusetts. Troy are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Massachusetts project to finish 15.5–14.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Troy project to finish 15.7–12.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts | 15.5–14.5 | 8% | 13% |
| Troy | 15.7–12.3 | 14% | 20% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →