NCAAB
Canisius
Penn State
Win Probability
Moneyline
CAN
+2500
6.6% win prob
EV +35.8%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
PSU
-3993
93.4% win prob
EV -2.1%
Polymarket
Penn State hosts Canisius in a matchup heavily favored toward the home side. The simulation leans decisively to Penn State, projecting a comfortable margin in a game that turns on whether Canisius can keep pace offensively—a tall order for a visitor facing this opponent. In similar spots across eight other games, AccuScore's model has gone 8–0, a perfect historical record that reflects Penn State's structural advantages here. For Canisius to stay competitive, the combined scoring would need to climb well above the model's expectation, as offensive volume is the only lever the underdog truly controls in this matchup.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | PSU | EV | CAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -8000 | -2.7% | +2200 | +25.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10000 | -2.8% | +2400 | +32.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -2.8% | +2000 | +19.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -10000 | -2.8% | +2500 | +35.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -3993 | -2.1% | +2423 | +33.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -9.2% | -110 | +4.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -9.2% | -110 | +4.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -9.2% | -110 | +4.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -9.2% | -110 | +4.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 152.5 | -105 | -8.3% | -115 | +3.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Penn State 93% to beat Canisius (7%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Penn State the more likely winner at 93%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Penn State a 93% chance of beating Canisius, against 7% for Canisius. Penn State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Canisius project to finish 11.8–19.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Penn State project to finish 12.1–17.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canisius | 11.8–19.2 | 3% | 4% |
| Penn State | 12.1–17.9 | <1% | 8% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →