NCAAB
Gardner-Webb
UConn
Win Probability
Moneyline
GWEB
0.3% win prob
Moneyline
CONN
99.7% win prob
Gardner-Webb travels to Connecticut for a matchup the simulation favours decisively to UConn. The Huskies' depth and efficiency at home project to a substantial margin. Gardner-Webb will need to generate perimeter scoring and limit turnovers to stay competitive, as the model's historical record on games shaped this lopsidedly has gone 8–0 in favour of the favoured side. For the Colonels to threaten an upset, their defence would need to force enough stops to keep the pace manageable and their offence would have to operate cleanly in a hostile environment.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.3% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 147.5 | -113 | -7.4% | -113 | +1.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes UConn 100% to beat Gardner-Webb (0%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UConn the more likely winner at 100%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UConn a 100% chance of beating Gardner-Webb, against 0% for Gardner-Webb. UConn are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Gardner-Webb project to finish 7.5–20.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UConn project to finish 21.8–10.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 71% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner-Webb | 7.5–20.5 | 1% | 2% |
| UConn | 21.8–10.2 | 32% | 71% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →