NCAAB
Idaho State
Utah State
Win Probability
Idaho State travels to face Utah State in a matchup the model strongly favors the hosts to win. The simulation projects a low-scoring affair, with Utah State's defense likely to control tempo and limit opportunities for the visiting Aggies. Utah State's offensive weapons will need to execute efficiently; the game hinges on whether Idaho State can generate enough scoring to keep pace, a test the model rates as unlikely given the projected gap in output. AccuScore's record on similarly shaped games stands at 8 wins across 8 comparable matchups. For Idaho State to pull off the upset, the Aggies would need to shoot well above projection and force Utah State into uncharacteristic offensive struggles.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | USU | EV | IDST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -26.5 | -110 | -16.5% | -110 | +12.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -26.5 | -105 | -15.7% | -115 | +10.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -26 | -110 | -14.8% | -110 | +10.4% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -26.5 | -112 | -16.8% | -114 | +10.9% |
| Book | USU | EV | IDST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -1.0% | +3000 | -3.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -0.4% | -110 | -4.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -0.4% | -110 | -4.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -0.4% | -110 | -4.2% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 148.5 | -115 | -1.4% | -110 | -4.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 64.9%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Utah State 97% to beat Idaho State (3%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah State the more likely winner at 97%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Utah State a 97% chance of beating Idaho State, against 3% for Idaho State. Utah State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Idaho State project to finish 11.7–17.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Utah State project to finish 20.2–10.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 50% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho State | 11.7–17.3 | 5% | 8% |
| Utah State | 20.2–10.8 | 26% | 50% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →