NCAAB
Colgate
Washington
Win Probability
Washington hosts Colgate in a game where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The Huskies project to pull away in the second half, with their defence limiting the Raiders to just 70 points. Colgate will need strong perimeter shooting—particularly from players who can pressure Washington's guards—to stay competitive, but the model gives them only a 12% path to victory. In games with this win-probability shape across AccuScore's other matchups, the favoured side went 8 for 8. A Colgate upset would require the Raiders to hold Washington below 80 points while pushing their own efficiency well above projection.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | WASH | EV | COLG | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -14.5 | -110 | -8.6% | -110 | +4.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -14.5 | -110 | -8.6% | -110 | +4.0% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -14.5 | -114 | -9.3% | -112 | +3.6% |
| Book | WASH | EV | COLG | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -1667 | -3.4% | +860 | +8.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -1667 | -3.4% | +900 | +10.5% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -1429 | -3.0% | +750 | +1.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.3% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 153.5 | -114 | -5.6% | -114 | -0.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 56.6%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Washington 88% to beat Colgate (12%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Washington the more likely winner at 88%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Washington a 88% chance of beating Colgate, against 12% for Colgate. Washington are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Colgate project to finish 13.8–16.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Washington project to finish 15.3–13.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 30% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colgate | 13.8–16.2 | 13% | 14% |
| Washington | 15.3–13.7 | 3% | 30% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →