NCAAB • Tue, Nov 3, 03:00
Illinois State travels to face Saint Mary's in a game where the simulation decisively favors the hosts. Saint Mary's has the stronger lean, with AccuScore projecting a mid-70s output against a visiting team expected in the upper 60s. The game hinges on whether Illinois State can keep pace offensively; in eight similar matchups across other teams, the favored side won seven times.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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Illinois State project to finish 16.2–13.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 28% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Saint Mary's project to finish 20.5–9.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 54% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois State | 16.2–13.8 | 14% | 28% |
| Saint Mary's | 20.5–9.5 | 34% | 54% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Mary's 72% to beat Illinois State (28%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Mary's the more likely winner at 72%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Saint Mary's a 72% chance of beating Illinois State, against 28% for Illinois State. Saint Mary's are at home and favoured on these numbers.