NCAAB
Wagner
Boston College
Win Probability
Wagner travels to Boston College in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Across eight comparable games, AccuScore's model has gone 7-1, a record that lends weight to the projection here. The game likely turns on three-point shooting; Boston College's ability to space the floor and Wagner's need to keep pace from distance will shape how close this becomes. Wagner's path to an upset runs through forcing turnovers and controlling tempo, something the Wagners would need to execute at a level the numbers suggest is unlikely.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | BC | EV | WAG | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -4000 | -3.0% | +1600 | +19.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3000 | -2.6% | +1300 | +7.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -6000 | -3.3% | +1800 | +27.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -4000 | -3.0% | +1800 | +27.9% |
| Hard Rock Bet ↗ | -5000 | -3.2% | +1600 | +19.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -5.5% | -110 | +1.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 142.5 | -115 | -6.4% | -105 | +2.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -5.5% | -110 | +1.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -5.5% | -110 | +1.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 143 | -110 | -6.7% | -110 | +2.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Boston College 92% to beat Wagner (8%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Boston College the more likely winner at 92%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Boston College a 92% chance of beating Wagner, against 8% for Wagner. Boston College are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Wagner project to finish 11.9–15.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 24% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Boston College project to finish 14.0–18.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wagner | 11.9–15.1 | 19% | 24% |
| Boston College | 14.0–18.0 | <1% | 8% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →