NCAAB
Alabama State
Texas A&M
Win Probability
Alabama State travels to face Texas A&M in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The Aggies project to pull away in the second half, with their offence expected to generate significant scoring volume. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's model has won 7 of 8. For Alabama State to stay competitive, their defence would need to force turnovers and limit Texas A&M's efficiency in transition—a tall task on the road against a team the model sees running away with this game.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | TA&M | EV | ALST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | -100000 | -0.3% | +4000 | -37.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -50000 | -0.2% | +8000 | -25.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 161.5 | -105 | -8.6% | -115 | +3.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 161.5 | -115 | -10.4% | -105 | +6.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 161.5 | -105 | -8.6% | -115 | +3.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | -9.5% | -110 | +5.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 161.5 | -105 | -8.6% | -115 | +3.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Texas A&M 99% to beat Alabama State (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas A&M the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Texas A&M a 99% chance of beating Alabama State, against 1% for Alabama State. Texas A&M are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Alabama State project to finish 10.6–18.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Texas A&M project to finish 19.6–12.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 54% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama State | 10.6–18.4 | 7% | 7% |
| Texas A&M | 19.6–12.4 | 3% | 54% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →