Chattanooga
Penn State
Win Probability
Chattanooga travels to Penn State in a matchup the model decisively favors the home side to win. The simulation projects a game decided by execution on the perimeter and in transition, where Penn State's efficiency advantage compounds over forty minutes. Across eight similarly shaped contests, AccuScore's pick went 6-2, a record that argues for backing the stronger team here. For Chattanooga to pull the upset, its defense would need to force enough turnovers to generate second-chance opportunities and keep Penn State from settling into its rhythm.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | PSU | EV | UTC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1200 | -3.9% | +750 | +13.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1050 | -3.4% | +660 | +6.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -1000 | -3.2% | +625 | +4.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -1200 | -3.9% | +700 | +9.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -1300 | -4.2% | +800 | +17.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 160.5 | -108 | -4.1% | -112 | -0.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 159.5 | -115 | -3.4% | -105 | -1.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 160.5 | -110 | -4.5% | -110 | -0.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 160 | -110 | -3.4% | -110 | -1.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 160.5 | -110 | -4.5% | -110 | -0.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Penn State 85% to beat Chattanooga (15%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Penn State the more likely winner at 85%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Penn State a 85% chance of beating Chattanooga, against 15% for Chattanooga. Penn State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Chattanooga (0-1 so far) project to finish 15.4–13.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Penn State (1-0 so far) project to finish 14.4–15.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 17% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chattanooga | 15.4–13.6 | 9% | 9% |
| Penn State | 14.4–15.6 | <1% | 17% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Chattanooga and Penn State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.