NCAAB
UMass Lowell
Merrimack
Win Probability
UMass Lowell travels to face Merrimack in a game where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The model projects a low-scoring affair that turns on perimeter shooting; if UMass Lowell can find consistent three-point looks, it has a path to the upset, but Merrimack's ability to defend the arc will likely prove decisive. Across eight similar matchups in the historical record, AccuScore's side won six of them. For the visitors to pull the upset, they would need to limit their turnovers and manufacture scoring in transition—two areas where the simulation sees them struggling against Merrimack's setup.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | MRMK | EV | UML | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -340 | -3.3% | +270 | +1.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -335 | -3.2% | +265 | +0.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -340 | -3.3% | +270 | +1.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -350 | -3.7% | +275 | +2.3% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -360 | -3.9% | +260 | +0.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.2% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 27.9%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Merrimack 72% to beat UMass Lowell (28%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Merrimack the more likely winner at 72%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Merrimack a 72% chance of beating UMass Lowell, against 28% for UMass Lowell. Merrimack are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UMass Lowell project to finish 16.4–12.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Merrimack (0-1 so far) project to finish 17.6–13.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMass Lowell | 16.4–12.6 | 26% | 20% |
| Merrimack | 17.6–13.4 | 24% | 18% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →