NCAAB
UMBC
Marist
Win Probability
UMBC travels to Marist in a matchup the simulation favors the hosts. Across eight past games with similar win-probability shapes, AccuScore's model has gone 4–4, so there is genuine uncertainty despite the lean toward Marist. The game will likely turn on pace and efficiency; both teams project to score in the upper 60s to low 70s, and the combined total has a 49% chance of clearing the market line. Whether UMBC can keep this close will depend on whether it can execute efficiently enough on the road to overcome Marist's home advantage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | MRST | EV | UMBC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -166 | -1.6% | +140 | -2.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -156 | -0.4% | +130 | -4.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -145 | +1.0% | +125 | -5.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -165 | -1.5% | +135 | -3.5% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -180 | -3.0% | +140 | -2.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -5.9% | -110 | +1.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -8.2% | -110 | +3.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -5.9% | -110 | +1.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -5.9% | -110 | +1.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 142 | -110 | -7.0% | -110 | +2.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 60.4%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Marist 60% to beat UMBC (40%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Marist the more likely winner at 60%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Marist a 60% chance of beating UMBC, against 40% for UMBC. Marist are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UMBC (0-1 so far) project to finish 17.0–12.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 24% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Marist (0-1 so far) project to finish 14.4–14.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How UMBC and Marist come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met once since 2023: UMBC 0, Marist 1. The last meeting, on Nov 11, 2023, finished Marist 65, UMBC 59.