Cal Poly
Arizona
Win Probability
Cal Poly travels to Arizona for a matchup the simulation decisively favors the home side to win. Arizona's depth will be on display across 50,000 simulations that project a commanding margin, with the Wildcats' ability to score in volume the decisive factor. On games shaped statistically like this one, AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8. For Cal Poly to pull the upset, the Mustangs would need to lock down Arizona's scoring and sustain offensive efficiency themselves—a reversal of what the projections expect.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | ARIZ | EV | CP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -100000 | -0.2% | +5000 | -39.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -50000 | -0.1% | +9000 | -31.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 173.5 | -108 | -9.1% | -112 | +4.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 172.5 | -115 | -7.9% | -105 | +3.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 173.5 | -110 | -9.4% | -110 | +4.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 173 | -110 | -8.2% | -110 | +3.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 173.5 | -110 | -9.4% | -110 | +4.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Arizona 100% to beat Cal Poly (0%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arizona the more likely winner at 100%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arizona a 100% chance of beating Cal Poly, against 0% for Cal Poly. Arizona are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Cal Poly project to finish 9.3–20.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Arizona (0-1 so far) project to finish 22.3–7.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 94% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Cal Poly and Arizona come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.