College Basketball · Big West
AccuScore projects Cal Poly to finish 12.8–17.2 with a 9% chance of making the NCAA Tournament and a 0.0% chance of winning the national championship.
From the daily season simulation: every remaining game played out thousands of times, then the 76-team tournament. All 365 schools →
| Make the field | 9.0% | |
| Play in the First Round | 6.9% | |
| Reach the Second Round | 2.3% | |
| Reach the Sweet 16 | 0.9% | |
| Reach the Elite Eight | 0.3% | |
| Reach the Final Four | 0.1% | |
| Reach the Championship | 0.1% | |
| Win the national title | 0.0% |
Likeliest seed lines: 16 (2%), 15 (1%).
| School | Proj | Conf title | Tourney |
|---|---|---|---|
| California Baptist | 19.7–12.3 | 21% | 29% |
| UC Irvine | 18.1–12.9 | 18% | 26% |
| Utah Valley | 16.8–10.2 | 23% | 33% |
| UC Santa Barbara | 16.2–13.8 | 11% | 17% |
| UC San Diego | 15.1–13.9 | 10% | 16% |
| Cal State Northridge | 14.5–15.5 |
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| 13% |
| Cal State Fullerton | 14.5–15.5 | 9% | 14% |
| Long Beach State | 13.7–18.3 | 5% | 9% |
| Cal Poly | 12.8–17.2 | 5% | 9% |
| UC Riverside | 12.3–17.7 | 4% | 7% |
| Sacramento State | 12.0–17.0 | 4% | 7% |
| Cal State Bakersfield | 9.5–20.5 | 1% | 2% |