NCAAB
Yale
UCF
Win Probability
Yale travels to face UCF in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Knights are projected to control the tempo and pull away late, with the game hinging on whether Yale can match UCF's efficiency from three-point range. Over eight similar contests, AccuScore's model has gone 6-2, suggesting the favored outcome holds up more often than not. For Yale to pull off the upset, the Bulldogs would need to force turnovers and generate pace—slowing the game down plays into UCF's hands.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | UCF | EV | YALE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -455 | -5.2% | +350 | +9.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -490 | -5.8% | +365 | +11.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -500 | -5.9% | +360 | +10.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -450 | -5.1% | +340 | +8.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -582 | -6.9% | +161 | -15.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 151.5 | -112 | +3.3% | -108 | -7.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -115 | +0.3% | -105 | -4.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | +3.7% | -110 | -8.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | +3.7% | -110 | -8.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 152 | -115 | +1.5% | -105 | -6.1% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes UCF 74% to beat Yale (27%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UCF the more likely winner at 74%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UCF a 74% chance of beating Yale, against 27% for Yale. UCF are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Yale (1-0 so far) project to finish 17.5–8.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 43% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UCF (1-0 so far) project to finish 14.7–16.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 24% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Yale and UCF come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.