NCAAB
Troy
Florida State
Win Probability
Moneyline
TROY
+2000
5.9% win prob
EV +11.9%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
FSU
-3582
94.1% win prob
EV -1.6%
Polymarket
Troy travels to Florida State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The Seminoles' defensive scheme should control the pace; across eight similar games, AccuScore's model has gone 8-0. Troy will need to find efficient scoring—its projection sits below 70 points—while Florida State's offensive execution, particularly through its backcourt, projects cleanly in the high 80s. For the Trojans to pull the upset, they would need to force turnovers and convert at a rate well above their season norms, a tall order on the road.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | FSU | EV | TROY | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3600 | -1.6% | +1500 | -2.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -4500 | -1.9% | +1600 | +0.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -7500 | -2.3% | +2000 | +11.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -4000 | -1.8% | +1800 | +6.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -3582 | -1.6% | +222 | -40.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 157.5 | -108 | -7.5% | -112 | +2.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | -7.9% | -110 | +3.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | -7.9% | -110 | +3.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | -7.9% | -110 | +3.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | -7.9% | -110 | +3.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Florida State 94% to beat Troy (6%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida State the more likely winner at 94%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Florida State a 94% chance of beating Troy, against 6% for Troy. Florida State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Troy (0-1 so far) project to finish 14.0–14.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Florida State (1-0 so far) project to finish 20.0–12.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 51% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy | 14.0–14.0 | 9% | 9% |
| Florida State | 20.0–12.0 | 5% | 51% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Troy and Florida State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Florida State have won 1 of their last 1 (W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2018: Troy 0, Florida State 1. The last meeting, on Dec 3, 2018, finished Troy 67, Florida State 83.