NCAAB
Middle Tennessee
Kansas
Win Probability
Middle Tennessee travels to Kansas in a matchup the simulation favors decisively for the home side. The Blue Raiders face a steep climb against a Kansas team projected to dominate in pace and efficiency. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's favored side has won 97% of the time across 513 graded contests. Middle Tennessee would need to force extended possessions and limit Kansas's transition game to stay competitive; anything close to the projected pace plays directly into the Jayhawks' hands.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | KU | EV | MTSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -29.5 | -108 | -11.2% | -112 | +6.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -29.5 | -118 | -12.8% | -102 | +9.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -29.5 | -110 | -11.5% | -110 | +7.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -29.5 | -110 | -11.5% | -110 | +7.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -29.5 | -110 | -11.5% | -110 | +7.0% |
| Book | KU | EV | MTSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -0.2% | +3300 | -26.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -10000 | -0.2% | +3500 | -24.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 156.5 | -115 | -8.1% | -105 | +3.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -7.2% | -110 | +2.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -7.2% | -110 | +2.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -7.2% | -110 | +2.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -7.2% | -110 | +2.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 59.7%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Kansas 99% to beat Middle Tennessee (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Kansas the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Kansas a 99% chance of beating Middle Tennessee, against 1% for Middle Tennessee. Kansas are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Middle Tennessee project to finish 13.2–13.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Kansas (1-0 so far) project to finish 20.3–9.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 80% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee | 13.2–13.8 | 10% | 10% |
| Kansas | 20.3–9.7 | 9% | 80% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Middle Tennessee and Kansas come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.