NCAAB
UNC Wilmington
East Carolina
Win Probability
UNC Wilmington travels to face East Carolina in a matchup where the simulation favors the visiting Seahawks clearly. The projection hinges on three-point shooting: East Carolina's Javon Bennett has a 58% chance to exceed his line from distance, while UNC Wilmington's Jaylen Fornes projects a 64% chance of the same. On games shaped like this one—where the model has leaned this way—the favored side won 68% of the time across 2,158 graded contests. For the Pirates to pull off the upset at home, they would need Bennett's perimeter stroke to stay hot while holding Fornes in check.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | ECU | EV | UNCW | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -316 | -24.0% | -443 | -12.9% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes UNC Wilmington 61% to beat East Carolina (40%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UNC Wilmington the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives East Carolina a 40% chance of beating UNC Wilmington, against 61% for UNC Wilmington. East Carolina are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
UNC Wilmington project to finish 18.3–11.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
East Carolina (1-0 so far) project to finish 12.9–15.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Wilmington | 18.3–11.7 | 15% | 14% |
| East Carolina | 12.9–15.1 | 2% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How UNC Wilmington and East Carolina come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
East Carolina have won 1 of their last 1 (W, most recent first).