NCAAB
Morehead State
Louisville
Win Probability
Morehead State travels to face Louisville in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. AccuScore's model projects a substantial margin, with Louisville's offense expected to dominate: the Cardinals' leading scorer has a 92% chance of exceeding 18 points, while Morehead State's top option projects for just 14. The game hinges on whether Morehead State can generate any offensive rhythm against Louisville's projected output of 91.6 points. On games shaped this decisively in the model's favor across recent history, the favored side won 97% of the time. For Morehead State to pull the upset, it would need to hold Louisville well below its projection while finding surprising offensive efficiency on the road.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | LOU | EV | MORE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -100000 | -0.1% | +30000 | -19.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 150 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 150.5 | -10969 | -24.8% | -10969 | -24.7% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Louisville 100% to beat Morehead State (0%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisville the more likely winner at 100%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Louisville a 100% chance of beating Morehead State, against 0% for Morehead State. Louisville are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Morehead State (0-1 so far) project to finish 14.0–14.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Louisville (1-0 so far) project to finish 17.8–11.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 60% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morehead State | 14.0–14.0 | 18% | 15% |
| Louisville | 17.8–11.2 | 6% | 60% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Morehead State and Louisville come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Morehead State have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).