NCAAB
Samford
UNLV
Win Probability
Samford travels to Las Vegas to face UNLV in a game where the simulation decisively favours the Rebels. The model projects a low-scoring affair that hinges on whether Samford can keep pace in a slower tempo, and across similar matchups in AccuScore's record, the favoured side won 92 percent of the time. For the Bulldogs to pull the upset, they would need to generate efficient scoring while holding UNLV's offence in check—a steep ask on the road. The Rebels are heavily favoured to control this one from start to finish.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | UNLV | EV | SAM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -750 | -4.6% | +525 | +12.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 156.5 | -115 | -3.6% | -105 | -0.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 157 | -110 | -3.9% | -110 | -0.5% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes UNLV 80% to beat Samford (20%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UNLV the more likely winner at 80%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UNLV a 80% chance of beating Samford, against 20% for Samford. UNLV are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Samford project to finish 15.6–12.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UNLV (1-0 so far) project to finish 17.3–12.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Samford and UNLV come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.