New Mexico State
Gonzaga
Win Probability
Moneyline
NMSU
0.8% win prob
Moneyline
GONZ
99.2% win prob
New Mexico State travels to face Gonzaga in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Gonzaga's depth will likely prove decisive; the model projects the Aggies to manage just 60 points while the Zags reach 87. On games shaped this way—where one team's win probability sits between 90 and 100 percent—AccuScore's pick won 97% of 513 graded contests. For New Mexico State to pull off an upset, its offense would need to reverse the projection substantially and keep Gonzaga well below its modeled output.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -5.9% | -110 | +1.4% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Gonzaga 99% to beat New Mexico State (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Gonzaga the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Gonzaga a 99% chance of beating New Mexico State, against 1% for New Mexico State. Gonzaga are at home and favoured on these numbers.
New Mexico State project to finish 10.1–17.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Gonzaga (1-0 so far) project to finish 22.7–5.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 92% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico State | 10.1–17.9 | 4% | 4% |
| Gonzaga | 22.7–5.3 | 61% | 92% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How New Mexico State and Gonzaga come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.