NCAAB
Northern Illinois
Dayton
Win Probability
Northern Illinois travels to Dayton in a matchup where the simulation strongly favours the hosts. AccuScore projects a decisive margin, with Dayton's offensive firepower the decisive factor—the Flyers' scoring is expected to substantially outpace the Huskies' output. On games shaped this strongly in the model's favour across eight comparable matchups, the favoured side won all eight. For Northern Illinois to pull the upset, it would need to generate far more offensive production than the projection suggests and force Dayton into an uncharacteristic shooting night.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | DAY | EV | NIU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -22.5 | -120 | -3.0% | -102 | -1.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -21.5 | -110 | +2.2% | -110 | -6.8% |
| Book | DAY | EV | NIU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -10000 | -0.9% | +2500 | -14.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -10000 | -0.9% | +3000 | -8.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | -6.2% | -110 | +1.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -3.3% | -110 | -1.2% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Dayton 97% to beat Northern Illinois (3%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Dayton the more likely winner at 97%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Dayton a 97% chance of beating Northern Illinois, against 3% for Northern Illinois. Dayton are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Northern Illinois (0-2 so far) project to finish 8.2–22.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Dayton (1-0 so far) project to finish 21.8–10.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 43% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois | 8.2–22.8 | 1% | 1% |
| Dayton | 21.8–10.2 | 19% | 43% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Northern Illinois and Dayton come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Northern Illinois have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).