NCAAB
Northwestern State
Murray State
Win Probability
Murray State hosts Northwestern State in a matchup the simulation favors decisively. The Racers' depth should tell in a game that turns on three-point shooting; Northwestern State's perimeter game will need to keep pace with Murray State's offensive spacing to stay close. On similar win-probability shapes across eight past games, AccuScore's favored side won seven times. Look for whether Northwestern State can generate enough volume from outside—if the Demons keep the combined score under the market's total, they have the best path to an upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | MUR | EV | NWST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -21 | -115 | -7.3% | -105 | +3.1% |
| Book | MUR | EV | NWST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -6000 | -1.5% | +2200 | +2.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | 153 | -110 | -6.8% | -110 | +2.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Murray State 95% to beat Northwestern State (5%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Murray State the more likely winner at 95%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Murray State a 95% chance of beating Northwestern State, against 5% for Northwestern State. Murray State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Northwestern State (0-2 so far) project to finish 9.3–20.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Murray State (1-0 so far) project to finish 19.8–11.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 22% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern State | 9.3–20.7 | 1% | 1% |
| Murray State | 19.8–11.2 | 17% | 22% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Northwestern State and Murray State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Northwestern State have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
Murray State have won 1 of their last 1 (W, most recent first).